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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:09 pm 
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Projections are based on the combination of my scout, OSA, real life stats, and the extensive amount of time I've wasted in my life with OOTP.

Don't be offended (or all that jazzed) about the grades. It's just based on my view of this draft, and no one's view is perfect. I've made tons of 1st round picks that have sucked over the years. It happens to everyone. No one is immune.

2040 Draft Analysis

SC : My Scout's Ratings
PR : My Projected Ratings (comparing OSA, my scout, stats, etc)
Risk : Player Development Risk. 1-5 scale 1 being lowest risk, 5 being highest risk.
Grd : Draft Pick Grade
Def : Defensive Potential (--- to +++)

General Draft Summary
2039 was another interesting build up from future stars to draft pool release. With the release of 5 Hall of Famers in the future stars, everyone was all riled up about the hitting potential of the draft. Come import time, things changed, and the hitting pool did not look all that great. The pitching pool however, was quite strong. The top 12 were very interesting, as once you got past Brown and Frisch (any maybe Buttons), you could easily of thrown up the rest of the top 12 in any order and gotten a reasonable draft list. There wasn't a huge difference in my mind between that set of guys. Great value in the 8-12 spots for sure.

Individual Pick Summary

1. SP Mordecai 'Three Finger' Brown (CLE) - SC: 10/8/7 PR: 10/8/8 Risk : 1 Grd : A
The clear cut #1 overall guy on the board. Pretty easy pick for CLE and he doesn't mess it up. Will he get and be worth $30M a year post arbitration?

2. 2B Frankie 'The Fordham Flash' Frisch (COL) - SC: 10/8/8/4 PR: 9/8/7/5 Def: + Risk : 2 Grd : A
Strongest hitter in the draft at a premium position, with serviceable defense. Frankie is also off to a nice start development wise and should put up some serious numbers in Coors field.

3. SP Buttons Briggs (MIN) - SC: 10/9/8 PR: 8/9/7 Risk : 1 Grd : A+
MIN moves up a spot to ensure they get their guy and hit hard. No risk, nearly fully developed, solid intangibles, potential ace. Great pick.

4. SP Jim "No Fancy Middle Name" Buchanan (STL) - SC: 7/9/8 PR: 8/9/8 Risk : 4 Grd : B
Buchanan may have *slightly* higher upside than Briggs, but with only 3 pitches and 1 entirely undeveloped, carries a lot of risk. There should not of been a toss up allowing a trade down. I would of stuck at 3 and taken Briggs in a heartbeat.

5. 2B Yoshio Takahashi (MON) - SC: 6/9/10/6 PR: 6/9/10/6 Def: - Risk : 3 Grd : A-
Yoshio is going to hit some absolute bombs and having elite power at the 2B position is pretty rare indeed. The question will be can he hold up defensively. My guess is the offense will far outweigh and defensive issues. He has some contact development to do but all in all looks like a very good pick.

6. SP Doc McJames (MIA) - SC: 10/9/7 PR: 9/9/7 Risk : 5 Grd : C
I don't mind risk when warranted and no other options, but McJames could very easily end up a reliever with a 3 pitch arsenal, 2 of which need serious work. Sure, his upside is tremendous, but Spahn (not to mention Frank Smith) is sitting on the board with solid potentials, a great track record, and very little risk. Not a fan of the selection.

7. SP Warren Spahn II (SD) - SC: 9/9/7 PR: 10/8/7 Risk : 2 Grd : A
SD picks up great value here snagging Spahn 7th. With a 6 pitch arsenal, and 2 fully developed, he is going to get there as a starter and should serve as their ace for a long long time. Great pick.

8. C Mickey Cochrane (PIT) - SC: 7/5/6/8 PR: 7/6/7/7 Def: - Risk : 2 Grd : B-
PIT grabs the one thing their system is lacking, a C, snagging one of the best ever. While not quite in the same boat as the Arky Vaughn import, Cochrane definitely slipped as his defense looks lacking. Pretty hard to let one of the best catchers ever fall past this spot here though. Graded this as a B- as Smith was the correct pick here.

9. SP Frank 'Piano Mover' Smith (MON) - SC: 10/8/8 PR: 9/9/8 Risk : 2 Grd : A+
Best pick of the draft so far, MON grabs Smith at the 9 spot. He was neck and neck with Buttons on my board as the 2nd or 3rd best pitcher. Very little risk with a ton of upside and no scary intangibles. MON quickly then flipped him to PIT for 2 hitting prospects who are major league ready.

10. SP Jimmy 'Sunny Jim' Dygert (MON) - SC: 10/9/6 PR: 10/9/6 Risk : 4 Grd : A-
We've left the land of surefire aces and are on to borderline #1/#2's. Dygert's control is a little in question and carries some development risk, but still has tremendous upside and is a fine pick at the 10 spot.

11. LF Oliver Carnegie (BAL) - SC: 6/8/10/5 PR: 6/8/8/4 Def : - Risk : 3 Grd : B+
BAL picks up a *much* needed power hitting prospect albeit at another corner position.

12. CF Earl Averill (PHI) - SC: 7/8/8/6 PR: 7/7/8/6 Def : + Risk : 3 Grd : A
PHI sits tight after failing to trade up for Smith, and lands a fine fine piece with Averill falling into their lap. Another guy who could of been #1 overall in pre import talk, we have to think the scouts are downplaying his defense a bit, right? If he ends up patrolling CF well this is a monster A+ pick.

13. SP Bill Stearns (NYY) - SC: 7/8/10 PR: 5/8/10 Risk : 5 Grd : C+
I think Stearns is going to struggle to miss bats, and combining that with the huge lengths he has to go with his pitch development and there were better choices here. If he can hit his 5/8/10 projections as a starting pitcher with 3 serviceable pitches he should be a fine #2 in anyone's rotation though.

14. SP Larry McKeon (ANA) - SC: 8/7/7 PR: 8/7/7 Risk : 1 Grd : B+
ANA goes the safe route with a nearly fully developed but much lower ceiling McKeon. I'm a fan of the pick as this is almost assuredly a safe borderline #2/#3 SP. I like a couple of the later picks more but can't argue with the strategy here.

15. SP Bud Daley II (TB) - SC: 8/7/6 PR: 9/7/6 Risk : 5 Grd : D
I don't know how Daley gets picked here with Mountain, Deagle and several others on the board. Some control questions, and a ton of development risk coupled with less upside. Could he end up a very good pitcher? Definitely, but why make things harder on yourself.

16. SP Frank Mountain (MIL) - SC: 9/9/5 PR: 9/9/6 Risk : 5 Grd : B+
See above. Same risk level, but way higher potential. 2 points in Movement may not sound like much, but it is.

17. SP Alonzo Brietenstein (KC) - SC: 10/9/5 PR: I have no clue Risk : 3 Grd : B?
I couldn't project Alonzo at all. His real life stats are horrendous but OSA and our scouts are telling us differently. There's nothing shining through later on the board aside to not try this here so why not.

18. SS/SP Ren Deagle (PIT) - SC: 9/9/4 PR: 9/9/7 Risk : 3 Grd : A
There's nothing about Deagle's real life stats to suggest any sort of control issues so at 18 PIT is happy to trade back into the draft and roll the dice on Deagle. I don't believe my scout's 4 or OSA's 5 in control. Projecting for a 7 and hoping for at least a 6. If he comes in at 9/9/6 this is a very good pick, and if the 7 hits it's outstanding. Oh, he can also hit a bit and play OF and IF as well. Love the 2 way play potential. Also love that both OAK and PHI were taking him in the next 2 picks.

19. SP Clarence Currie (OAK) - SC: 8/8/5 PR: 8/8/6 Risk : 3 Grd : B
Scrambling after the Deagle pick, there seems to be a noticeable drop-off in talent as Currie slides in at #19.

20. DH Ferris 'Burrhead Cocky' Fain (CLE) - SC: 6/7/4/10 PR: 5/7/4/10 Def : --- Risk : 2 Grd : D-
And off the rails we go. Let's take a guy with no defensive capabilities, fairly average OSA ratings for a guy with no defensive capabilities, and very average real life stats that barely, if at all, back up the fairly average OSA ratings. While not nearly as bad as some of the memorable KC selections (Joe Doyle, Harry Decker, that CF/C who couldn't hit)...we at least have some Scott Hatteberg like .265 BA .375 OBP 8 HR/yr upside here. Why you would subject your DH slot to this type of player with a #20 overall pick that you just traded a better future pick + a 3rd for leaves the mind questioning a lot of things, though.

21. SP Ray Scarborough (BOS) - SC: 9/7/6 PR: 7/7/6 Risk : 4 Grd : C+
The talent is definitely thinning but Scarborough looks very low upside to me. Probably some better ways to go in this spot.

22. 1B Joe Flynn (KC) - SC: 6/4/7/9 PR: 5/6/6/6 Risk : 3 Grd : C
Flynn can play both 1st and C, and even some really poor OF, so has some flexibility going for him. He has a little pop and if he makes it as a full time C this might be an ok pick, otherwise he looks like a reserve.

23. SP Tommy Byrne (MIA) - SC: 10/7/4 PR: 8/7/5 Risk : 1 Grd : B-
Byrne is nicely along in his development curve and while his upside isn't tremendous with the control issues, he should be a productive #3/#4 type SP.

24. SP Steve Gromek (TEX) - SC: 8/7/6 PR : 8/7/7 Risk : 3 Grd : A
We get back in the game here with a very nice pickup by TEX. The strong get stronger. Gromek has really nice upside at this spot and 6, yes 6 pitches, 2 of which are decently developed already. I really like the pick here.

25. SS Charlie Hollacher (LA) - SC: 7/7/2/5 PR: 8/7/2/5 Def : -/+ Risk : 2 Grd : A-
I can't argue with picking up a middle infielder with 7 or 8 contact and some gap power at this spot. If his defense holds up this is an excellent choice. LA doesn't whiff on too many picks so no big surprise.

26. SP Bunn Hearn (CHC) - SC: 8/5/9 PR: 8/5/9 Risk : 0 Grd : B+
100% fully developed at 21 years old, I can't remember ever seeing an import like this before. Possibly because his rookie year was his career year in a long career? Something I'll have to pay attention to moving forward. As nice as all of those things are, a 5 in movement is a scary, scary thing in our league so it remains to be seen if it will translate into any success. That being said - at the 26 spot it's a fine pick. Of note, see SP Billy Milligan write up from last year (currently on pace to give up 33 HR this season). Also of note, that's the 1st "0" I've ever given out for (dev) risk :)

27. SP Frank "Seagan" Lange (MIA) - SC: 9/7/5 PR: 9/7/5 Risk : 2 Grd : A
Some lower potential guys got taken way earlier, so I really like the Lange pick here at 27. Great value! Frank is also well along his development curve so it appears Miami fell into a winner here.

28. LF Smead Jolly (DET) - SC: 7/7/7/5 PR: 7/6/6/4 Def : + Risk : 3 Grd : A-
Those are some decent potentials here late in the round and Smead's excellent throwing arm will translate well in RF. He is a potential starting RF on any playoff caliber team at the 28 spot. Good pick.

29. 3B Michael Sullivan (SD) - SC: 5/5/7/9 PR: 5/6/4/4 Def: -- Risk : 4 Grd : C+
You never *really* know with the Indy league guys, so I'm likely pushing his projections down a tad too much, but there were probably several other ways I'd go at this spot (3B Denny who went in the 2nd or Brown in the next spot).

30. C Lew Brown (PHI) - SC: 5/10/7/6 PR: 4/10/7/6 Def : -- Risk : 3 Grd : A-
Something we say frequently and will only say more often the next decade. "Fucking Philly". Good pick.


Round 1 Awards :
Best Pick of the Draft (based on value for slot) : There were a number of good choices here but I'm going to go with TEX and Steve Gromek at 24.
Runner Up : MON - Frank Smith 9th
Honorable Mention : PIT - Ren Deagle 18th

Best Sleeper Pick : DET Smead Jolly #28. I think he is going to surprise some folks

The Firing on All Cylinders Award : MON hitting well with picks 5, 9, and 10.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:38 pm 
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Thanks Eric


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 2:00 pm 
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Thanks Eric! The one other thing I will say to defend the Fain pick -- he was a two-time AL Batting Champ

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 2:08 pm 
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Very nicely done! --- Waaaay better than the drivel that I have spewed. While I am dubious about some of your conclusions, I really like the way you laid the whole thing down. A pleasure...keep it up.

I'll leave the sports writing to Raoul

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:32 pm 
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I was between Sullivan, Denny and Clark on that pick. The random number generator said to take the risk with Sullivan so I did. Grading the three out on my own, I had Sullivan third on the list. Randomness doesn't suit me very well.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:18 pm 
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Good stuff...thanks for the writeup!


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